Changes in Rainfall and Surface Temperature Over Lower Jubba, Somalia

Linda Ajuang Ogallo*, Gilbert Ouma* and Philip Omondi**

*Institute of Climate Change and Adaptation, University of Nairobi

**IGAD Climate Prediction and Application Centre

Corresponding Author

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(Received 18 April 2017, received in revised form 17 July 2017, Accepted 4 August 2017)


Climate is changing at an alarming rate threatening the critical pillars for environmental, social and economic development. Signals of climate change seems to be quite real for many African communities. Somalia, is one the countries of the GHA that has faced unique climate variability and climate change challenges, within severe conflict environment and lack of a stable government for many years. The objective of this study was to understand the past and present rainfall and temperature patterns over Lower Jubba. Rainfall data used extended from 1981-2015, while those of temperature 1981-2012.  The study for rainfall concentrated within the two main rainfall seasons namely Gu and Deyr. Temperature data were however analysed for all the four seasons, June to August, December to February, September to November, and March to May. The data were subjected to various trend analysis methods that included time series plots of the graph of the specific rainfall and temperature observations. Two statistical approaches namely linear regression and Man-Kendal non-parametric statistics were employed in testing the significance of the slope of the rainfall and temperature time series for specific seasons. Evidences from tend analyses showed increasing trends in both minimum and maximum temperatures at all locations and all seasons, which is consistent with patterns that have been delineated in many parts of the Greater Horn of Africa. IPCC among many other past studies have linked global temperature increase worldwide to climate change induced global warming. Due to limitation in the length of temperature data used in this study, it be would be difficult to attribute the observed trends in temperature records entirely to climate change. The results from rainfall showed that most of the trends observed were not statistically significant. Few significant trends that were delineated at some locations were not spatially consistent over large areas. The most dominant characteristics of rainfall time series were high degree of interannual variability with recurrences in high/low value extremes that are often associated with floods/droughts. Some of these extremes occurred during El Nino /La Nina years. Results are consistent with those from some past studies in the region. The results from the study can be used in the planning and risk management of all climate sensitive socio-economic development activities in Somalia, especially in the development of strategy for sustainable community livelihoods and development in Lower Jubba.

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